This essay examines the international trade policies of the two presumed candidates for presidentin 2024, Joseph Biden and Donald Trump. I first analyze the trade law revolution effected by theTrump presidency, 2017-2021. During these years the Trump administration adopted a protectionistpolicy rooted in nationalism and populism. As a direct result of Trump administration trade policythere occurred: (1) a significant retreat from globalization; (2) paralysis of the World Trade Organization; (3) a revival of U.S. unilateralism in trade policy; and (4) the U.S.-China trade war.When Joseph Biden became president in 2021, he did not reverse the Trump trade policies. Ratherdeclaring his favor of a “worker-oriented” trade policy, the Biden administration defended Trump’stariff policies while continuing his hostility to new free trade agreements and the multilateral tradingsystem. Biden’s distinctive addition to Trump’s trade policy is a protectionist industrial policy featuring subsidies and a “buy American” mandate.Nevertheless, Trump and Biden propose very different international trade policies for 2025 and beyond. Trump intends to adopt across the board protectionist tariffs on all imports; Trump proposespunitive tariffs on imports from China that will effectively “decouple” China-U.S. trade. Biden’s tradepolicy will be rooted in industrial policy and “buy American” protectionism.Prominent critics of both Trump and Biden propose a “third way” set of international trade policiesthat avoid protectionism. This “third way” would feature new free trade agreements with Asian-Pacific, European, and Western Hemisphere nations, rehabilitation of the WTO, revival of multilateralism and U.S. leadership, and a more constructive relationship with China.
scholink.org/ojs/index.php/asir Applied Science and Innovative Research Vol. 6, No. 2, 2022 the weight matrix is the relationship between all variables. So, the weight matrix 1 be the relationship between all variables . The weight matrix 1, which shows the relationship of four series is: = 0.15161 + 0.35982 + 0.05773 + 0.43094 (7) The GDP in Bidens policy can be calculated by formula (7): = 2.2721 1013 (8) By the previous data, the GDP in Trumps policy can be predicted by Grey Model directly: GM(1,1) model is one of the most effective GM. By using the data in the referencing website, the original sequence can be written as: (0) = {(0)(1), (0)(2), (0)(3), (0)(4)} (9) By accumulation, the new sequence can be written as: (1) = {(1)(1), (1)(2), (1)(3), (1)(4)} (10) The differential equation of (1) is:
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(1) + (1) = (11) The solution for equation (12) is: (1)( + 1) = [(0)(1) ] + (12) The coefficients can be calculated using the least square method: = [ ] = ()1 (13) Finally, the GDP in Trumps policy can be calculated by formula (9)-(13): = 2.24793 1013 (14) Obviously, > , it means that the country will have more GDP under Bidens policy. Step 3: Model establishment of COVID-19 The number of different types of people shown in Figure 5 is collected. Figure 5. Different Types of People during COVID-19 After that, we use SEIR model to have a better prediction of the number of different types of people. People who are susceptible to infection will experience an incubation period at the beginning, and symptoms will appear after a period. The latent person is transformed into an infected person according to the probability formula . Modify the differential equation as following: 19 Published by SCHOLINK INC.
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scholink.org/ojs/index.php/asir Applied Science and Innovative Research Vol. 6, No. 2, 2022 = = = (15) { = For Trump, the main policies are nature development and maintaining the policies right now. Obviously, the situation will not be better in a short time. But for Biden, the policies are changed. Firstly, he wants to improve the proportion of medical insurance and import medicines from foreign countries, which can reduce the impact more effective than Trumps. The recovery rate of Trumps policy is 0.48, and Bidens is 0.8. In addition, for the number of people who are infected with susceptible people: Trump is 20 but Biden is only 5. The two important factors above are used in the formula (15). Set the same initial date, and input two different series of factors. Then after 40 days, the number of recovered people is shown in Figure 6.
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Figure 6. The Number of Recovered People (Biden Left, and Trump Right) It is reported that the average value of recovery cost is 20292 dollars, and we set the total cost for recovery is . The costs are: = 6,256,023,600,000 , = 6,479,235,600,000 (16) And < , it means that the country will save costs on COVID-19 protection and recovery treatment if Biden runs for the president. Step 4: Comparison and analysis By direct comparison in both step 2 and step 3, it is obvious that Bidens policies will lead the U.S.s economic be better in the future. Two main series of comparison proved this conclusion. 20 Published by SCHOLINK INC.
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