Created at 4am, Mar 14
HephaestionCrypto
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Decomposing cryptocurrency high-frequency price dynamics into recurring and noisy components
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This paper investigates the temporal patterns of activity in the cryptocurrency market with a focus on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and WINkLink from January 2020 to December 2022. Market activity measures - logarithmic returns, volume, and transaction number, sampled every 10 seconds, were divided into intraday and intraweek periods and then further decomposed into recurring and noise components via correlation matrix formalism. The key findings include the distinctive market behavior from traditional stock markets due to the nonexistence of trade opening and closing. This was manifest in three enhanced-activity phases aligning with Asian, European, and U.S. trading sessions. An intriguing pattern of activity surge in 15-minute intervals, particularly at full hours, was also noticed, implying the potential role of algorithmic trading. Most notably, recurring bursts of activity in bitcoin and ether were identified to coincide with the release times of significant U.S. macroeconomic reports such as Nonfarm payrolls, Consumer Price Index data, and Federal Reserve statements. The most correlated daily patterns of activity occurred in 2022, possibly reflecting the documented correlations with U.S. stock indices in the same period. Factors that are external to the inner market dynamics are found to be responsible for the repeatable components of the market dynamics, while the internal factors appear to be substantially random, which manifests itself in a good agreement between the empirical eigenvalue distributions in their bulk and the random matrix theory predictions expressed by the Marchenko-Pastur distribution. The findings reported support the growing integration of cryptocurrencies into the global financial markets.

In the superposed log-return time series Rtk , the peak synchronous activity was observed to occur at 12:30 UTC for BTC and ETH. This raises a question which events occur on the most correlated days during that time. To address it, the off-diagonal elements of the correlation matrix CR day for BTC are arranged in descending order. These elements, along with the timing of the pattern and the releases of macroeconomic news, are presented in Tab. I. Consistent with the superposed time series evolution associated with the most collective eigenvector v1, the increased activity for nearly all strongly correlated days was found to happen at 12:30 UTC. Several U.S. macroeconomic news are released at this time on varying 7 ETH 1=25.2 WIN 1=13.9
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ETH 1=40.6 WIN 1=14.6 20 Decomposing cryptocurrency high frequency price dynamics into recurring and noisy components 10 1 0.1 0.01 BTC ETH 10 3 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 BTC 0.001 0.0001 dV) Cj 10 P( 1 DOGE WIN 2 0 h) -2 Rj -4 -6 -8 ( 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.0001 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 10 1 0.1 0.01 0.2 0 0.2 V 0.4 Cjd BTC 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 ETH 10 3 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 hour UTC ETH 0.001 0.0001 dN Cj 10 P( ) 1 DOGE WIN 2 0 h) -2 Rj -4 -6 -8 ( 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.0001 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 N 0.6Cjd 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 FIG. 8. Probability density function of the off-diagonal elements for the intraday correlation matrix CV day (lower) for BTC, ETH, DOGE, and WIN. day (upper) and CN
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The most recurrent events are the NFP Nonfarm Payrolls report on unemployment (Friday 12:30) and the reports related to ination: CPI Consumer Price Index, PPI Producer Price Index, PCE Personal Consumption Expenditures, together with PI Personal Income (Tue-Fri 12:30). The only exceptions are the two days featuring the publication of the statement post Federal Reserve meetings on Wednesday at 18:00. No day exhibiting a strong correlation has been found on weekends, which constitute periods devoid of any macroeconomic announcement in the U.S., and also on Monday, which is generally a quiet day for economic news. This suggests a degree of correlation between patterns in the BTC market activity and the news related to the U.S. economy. Interestingly, while the recurring patterns on the most strongly correlated days occurred at the consistent time of 12:30, these patterns emerged on different weekdays. Hence, a further investigation of the intraweek patterns of
id: 852d271587ba8dca748a9bf662e19e4d - page: 8
0.6 3 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 2 0 h) -2 Rj -4 -6 -8 ( 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 hour UTC DOGE 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 WIN 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 hour UTC FIG. 9. The superposed time series of log-returns Rk (i) calculated according to Eq. (4) for BTC, ETH, DOGE, and WIN. 8 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 1 Decomposing cryptocurrency high frequency price dynamics into recurring and noisy components TABLE I. The largest off-diagonal elements of the correlation matrix CR day for BTC, together with the time and date of the U.S. macroeconomic news releases that were related to the increased market activity. NFP Nonfarm Payrolls, CPI -Consumer Price Index, PPI Producer Price Index, PCE Personal Consumption Expenditures, Pi Personal Income, FED FOMC (Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee) statement. event CR jd NFP
id: 70debf9590de4c1e1df81c584d67d5ba - page: 8
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