Created at 5am, Mar 14
HephaestionScience
0
Citizens as a democratic safeguard? The sequence of sanctioning elite attacks on democracy
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hnsw

In many elections worldwide, citizens support politicians who have undermined democracy while in office. Why? For citizens to safeguard democratic institutions, they must not only disapprove of a politician's undemocratic conduct but also be willing to retract support from her at the next election. This article examines under which conditions citizen evaluations of undemocratic elite conduct become consequential for behavioral actions and whether specific segments of the electorate, such as politically educated, liberal, antimajoritarian, and moderate partisans, react more forcefully to such elite violations. Evidence from a survey experiment in Poland, closely following the sequence of presidential elections, reveals that citizens firmly dislike attacks on core electoral institutions, irrespective of whether they are committed by incumbent or oppositional copartisans. However, neither the electorate's nor any segment's dissent translates into revised vote choices. The study has implications for why undemocratic elite behavior often remains unpunished and citizens rarely avert democratic backsliding.

6 However, the head of the Supreme Court (S ad Najwyzszy) was excluded from nominating a member after the reform took effect. 7 The main opposition forces in Poland are alliances between parties. 8 This survey experiment was preregistered at Appendix A in the online supporting information (pp. 14) contains details on the experiment in Polish and English; Appendix D (pp. 1116) evaluates the preregistered hypotheses and regression models, as well as additional statistical tests. For a power calculation on the realized sample size, see Appendix F (p. 31). 9 See descriptive statistics and composition of the sample in Appendix B in the online supporting information (pp. 58). The survey was administered online with YouGov in July/August 2021. Appendix H (pp. 3132) shows that treatment groups are balanced on selected covariates. 10 Survey experiments featuring hypothetical scenarios have become a common tool in experimental research on democratic backsliding, see Sim
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(2022).
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15405907, 0, Downloaded from by National Health And Medical Research Council, Wiley Online Library on [13/03/2024]. See the Terms and Conditions ( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
id: 34887627ad49a32e1095abad09640ad5 - page: 9
JACOB F I G U R E 3 Hypothetical postelection scenarios presented to respondents. Note: Respondents were exposed to the behavior of the preferred candidate (referred to as Chosen Candidate, that is, either the Law and Justice (PiS) candidate or Civic Coalition (KO) candidate) selected before viewing the scenario vignettes. that both candidates are male and around 50 years old, was provided to ensure that factors other than partisanship did not inuence respondents decisions in the experiment. Respondents were then asked to report (1) their likelihood of voting for each of the two candidates (from extremely unlikely to extremely likely) and (2) which of these two candidates they would vote for or whether they would not go to the polls.
id: 7b25e67e495292312e46c18703b869ec - page: 9
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