About ICT trading model developped in 2022
You need a Swing High with a Bearish Context. 2. Study what occurred on the 3rd Candle Intra-day. 3. If the 3rd Candle Intra-day indicates a REVERSAL, expect the 4th Candle to be an Expansion lower. If stage 1 is completed with a 4th candle expansion, continue to stage 2 How to use Swing Points for Daily Bias and PO3 IF YOU ARE BEARISH Stage 2: After a Swing High has been confirmed with a 4th candle close, Price will most likely build another short-term premium before it has another expansion lower. This is when you wait for Price to trade back into a Premium market relative to it's range. Expect this too occur when Price hits a counter-trend level. Price will either pause and consolidate, or retrace back into a Premium. Stage 1 Example: Stage 1 Example: REFER BACK TO EPISODE 5 NOTES "MARKET PROFILES" FOR MORE INSIGHT ON THAT 3RD CANDLE... Stage 1 Example: Stage 1 Example:
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Stage 2 Example: Remember this? This is when Stage 2 comes in. Why Though? Study 4th Candle Intraday Do you see the Market Reversal Profile? It also hits the Daily Level at the same time. Stage 2 Example: Stage 2 Example: Stage 2 Example: Stage 2 Example: Stage 2 Example: You are sticking with your bias the whole time. Refer back to page 28 An entire Bearish Price Swing on a Daily Chart consists of both Up Close Days and Down Close Days... Know that the majority of Daily Candles will be Down closes instead of Up Closes. Those Up Close Candles are used for New Selling to continue the Bullish Price Swing.... YOU ARE FOLLOWING IT'S PREMISE UNTIL THE DRAW OF LIQUIDITY YOU HAVE FRAMED HAS BEEN MET. Psychology for Daily Bias [From other notes]
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Stick & Stay with Your Bias Only. Execute only with that bias in mind. If you are Bearish, only stick to shorting. If you are Bullish, only stick to longing. You do not have to capture the large moves, but rather work with your biased expectation so that you do not "flip flop" back n forth between biases and confuse yourself! Day Trading is NOT Everyday Trading. You think you will be able to do this every day, but that is a misunderstanding... Why? You are falling in love with WINNING instead of being PROCESS-ORIENTATED. Falling in love with "being correct" and "being better than the rest" is a trap. The truth is it does not need to happen every day. Find comfort in NOT taking trades. Understand the potential risks in trading every day because of the markets being open. You are too focused on the money. Not every day will give you a high probability opportunity. Power of 3 consists of 3 Stages: Accumulation, Manipulation and Distribution.
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Bearish Example: Accumulation Phase: When price is trading at and above the Opening Price, Smart Money is accumulating a net short book. Above the Opening Price or at "Close Proximity Entries" is where Smart Money is looking to go short. Manipulation Phase: The False Price Move caused at Market Openings or prior to news releases is a form of Manipulation. The False Price Move is intended to lead Retail Traders on the wrong side of the Market. ICT calls this a Judas. Distribution Phase: Distribution is where opposite side of the Candle forms into the closing of the Candle. This is where Smart Money distributes their accumulation of Shorts. We can expect the Distribution Cycle to take place around 3:30 3:45 PM NY Time. You do NOT need to predict where the Low will form or where the candle will close to be PROFITABLE. DAILY Close Proximity Entries [CPE] The Opening Range defines how much movement below the Opening you will allow for High Probability Short scenarios.
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