Key Takeaways:\'Our higher-probability scenarios are positive crypto in 2024, but we are less sanguine than consensus and see a 10-20% probability that inflation re-accelerates post Fed-pivot, which would challenge crypto prices- High-conviction 1: A world where AI agents become primary users on the blockchain is not so far-off- High-conviction 2: Intent-centric apps will address UX and other user pain points- High-conviction 3: 2024 will be the year where DEXs gain market share from CEXs, boosted by monetary incentives and innovative features- High-conviction 4: Bitcoin, the biggest and most trusted cryptocurrency, will be used to secure other use cases than simple transactions\'
Limitations: Some of these cryptographic models will be trained and optimized (off-chain) using AI. If AI cryptographic models become performant enough in the future, will AI be able to manipulate ZK or other proofs? Rewards through token-based incentives For AI models to function autonomously, token-based incentives can be used to reward these AI agents/models when they perform as desired. On the crypto-native front, likely, tokens and projects like Bittensor (TAO), Autonolas (OLAS), and other projects associated with AI will continue to catch a bid. The strong outperformance of AI project tokens during the bear market (as early as the beginning of 2023) has shown that there is enough belief and momentum in the early innings of AI and blockchain. Other OG plays like FET, AGIX, are among the leading tokens for higher-cap AI coins.
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Source: Nansen Query While there is currently an emphasis on expanding the foundation of AI infrastructure, we anticipate a shift towards prioritizing consumer-oriented applications that make the most of the existing technology framework. It becomes evident that the challenge lies not only in the infrastructure itself but also in identifying the intended beneciaries and end-users of these
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C. High-conviction #2: Improved UX in crypto applications The existing cryptocurrency applications pose a signicant entry hurdle for investors who are not already familiar with the crypto space, as the consumer interfaces of these apps are often regarded as cumbersome and challenging to navigate. Throughout the past year, we have observed many efforts aimed at streamlining the current user experience, enhancing the underlying infrastructure for payments, and improving various functionalities. All of these endeavors are vital steps in making the crypto apps more user-friendly and accessible. Intent-centric applications for DeFi applications, and focus on generalized models With intents, users can express a desired outcome while outsourcing the task of best achieving the outcome to third parties. The process of executing something from 0 to 1 does not need to be known by the user and will be completed in the most capital-efcient manner. Teams like Anoma
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General signies that deploying new applications will not require setting up new parameters (i.e. mempools). While general-purpose intents are likely the end-game for intent-centric architectures, we will likely not see a fully generalized system being adopted in the near term. Account abstraction + better wallet infrastructure Account abstraction (AA) allows users to delegate their actions on-chain to smart contracts, without losing wallet custody. It will likely greatly enhance the UX of interacting with blockchains. ERC4337 as a standard for relaying smart account-initiated transactions will further catalyze the evolution of wallet infrastructure to accommodate AA, giving rise to new market structures, dApp
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