SINCE DELOITTE LAST presented aforecast for electric vehicle (EV) sales, inJanuary 2019, the EV market has made greatstrides, and not just in terms of sales. Originalequipment manufacturers (OEMS) have investedbillions to deliver new electrified models, fromR&D to factory redesign. Consumer attitudeshave evolved. Government interventions havepushed forward and pulled back. But thenCOVID-19 completely disrupted global sales andmanufacturing. In this context, a revised forecastbased on updated data is needed.By examining the current state of the EV marketworldwide and noting the many factors fosteringgrowth in various directions (Part 1 of this report),we have formed conclusions about how themarket will take shape over the next decade. Thesignificant growth of EVs leading up to 2030 willpresent major opportunities and challenges fortraditional OEMs, new-entrant OEMs, captivefinance companies and dealerships. In particular,traditional OEMs will find insights in this reportthat can help them re-prioritise their customersand strategies in a volatile competitive landscape.Paramount to seizing opportunities and managing risks is taking a new approach to marketsegmentation. We detail one such approach inPart 2 and apply it as a use case to one majormarket, the United Kingdom, to inform andinspire OEMs and other stakeholders globally.By letting today’s insights fuel the journey forthe next ten years, we can accelerate beyondthe obstacles the pandemic has brought andtoward a future where EVs take centre stage.
Consumer segment descriptions of the United Kingdom automotive market SEGMENT A Potential addressable market of circa 3 million people: All ages; do not own a car; will use it for multiple purposes SEGMENT B Circa 5.25 million people: Point-to-point commuters; rarely travel long distances; ages 1750; those aged 3150 will buy outright or spend less than 299/month ($382/month) SEGMENT C Circa 1.75 million people: Long-distance commuters; ages 1750; those aged 3150 will buy outright or spend less than 299/month ($382/month) SEGMENT D Circa 2.5 million people: Under age 30; will spend less than 299/month ($382/month) or buy outright for work travel or personal use SEGMENT E Circa 2.75 million people: Under age 30; will spend 300+/month ($383+/month) or buy outright for work travel or personal use SEGMENT F Circa 5 million people: Ages 3150; will spend less than 299/month ($382/month) or buy outright for limited work travel or personal use
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SEGMENT G Circa 2 million people: Ages 3150, regularly travel long distances or commute for work; will spend 300+/month ($383+/month) SEGMENT H Circa 2.5 million people: Ages 3150; will spend 300+/month ($383+/month); will use for short work travel or personal use SEGMENT I Circa 5 million people: Ages 51+; will use for multiple purposes Source: Deloitte analysis40 Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights 14 Key behavioural differences Price sensitivity: Most segments would pay This kind of segmentation provides a detailed more for an EV. Segment E is the most likely to understanding of modern automotive consumers pay 100 ($128) or more per month (15 per cent needs, wants and behaviours. Before defining versus the average 5 per cent). Segments F and I the nuances of each United Kingdom segment by creating Customer Portraits , lets consider the are the least likely to pay more for an EV (28 per cent and 35 per cent, respectively, versus the
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Brand loyalty: Segments E and G are the most These characteristics are worthy of careful brand loyal, usually buying the same brand (47 consideration in the next step of the segmenper cent and 46 per cent, respectively, versus tation exercise: building Customer Portraits. the average 27 per cent); this translates to their intended purchasing behaviour both types of consumer believe they would buy an EV from Customer Portraits: Driving a change in behaviour their current brand (48 per cent and 64 per cent, Building a Customer Portrait for each target respectively, versus the average 37 per cent). segment invites insights into key aspects of a Segments F and I are most likely to consider consumer that, when viewed collectively, explain switching brands to find a more suitable EV (47 their behaviour. It outlines what they do and
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Segment A is most and barriers to, behavioural change or lack likely to consider choosing either an EV start-up thereof. Ultimately, this allows an OEM, captive brand (42 per cent versus the average 25 per finance company or dealership to effectively cent) or an existing brand not currently associtarget and encourage desired behaviours by ated with automotive products (12 per cent revising marketing and activation strategies. versus the average 5 per cent).
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